MnGCA

King Boreas · Posted: Wed May 12, 2004 11:18 am Post subject: Canterbury Park

http://websports.8m.com/newfile.html

A new discussion, in which the versatile K B selects longshot plays for your entertainment. A basic explanation of my "method" is here:

http://peoplesforum.com/cgi-bin/forum?14@@.1e0ff6d1/0

One day's selection, with results:

http://peoplesforum.com/cgi-bin/forum?14@@.1ea9cb05/9

rickrich · Geocacher Joined: 06 Jul 2003 Posts: 673

Where the LS or the HC picks your picks?

Kathleen got a couple of free passes to Canterbury, so we'll probably be heading there real soon. She and the kids really like the horse races.

Back in the 1950s when my father was an HS math teacher, he used to go to a track in OH and try to work out a "system" for betting the horses. He wanted to work out if there was any statistical correlations so he could get an edge. He went for weeks trying to perfect his system. He tried all kinds of things with horse stats, post position, etc. In the end, he said that none of that stuff worked very well. He'd come up with systems that worked well for one day, but the next day it stunk.

He eventually did come up with a system, that at least worked well for the rest of that summer. But it had nothing to do with Math or Statistics. He noticed that just before post time, "runners" would come down one set of stairs to place bets. These runners were placing big money bets for the rich gamblers upstairs. The runners were trying to place the bets as close as possible to post time so as not to tip off other bettors. He would try to get in the betting line right after one of the runners, try to overhear what they bet, and then hopefully place the same bet before the windows closed for that race He said this system consistently made him money that year.

-Rick

King Boreas · Posted: Wed May 12, 2004 12:34 pm Post subject:

I've tried lots of "systems" and variations. Exactly as your dad said. One year I did really well using the longshot method. The next year, it was not so good.

I'm not a big bettor, but I want to do some "analyzing" to make my picks. Sometimes I'll spend a half hour on a race and come up with the same pick as my son, who read a couple lines' info on each horse.

My primary pick will be a longshot (LS), but not every race will have a qualified LS. Then I will use my HC (handicap) method, looking for horses with consistent workouts.

There's another one that I never quite mastered, based on a book "Beat the Races" (Beat the Track?) by Dr. Z. This one actually makes sense, but relies on a LOT of math, minutes before the race, and being able to get a bet in.

I'm going for the opener on Friday, and quite often my sons and I go on Thursdays. (Buck Beer) Fridays are $2.00 beer, with live music between races, not a bad deal.

King Boreas · Posted: Thu May 13, 2004 5:14 am Post subject:

LS=longshot pick
HC=handicap pick
L1=1st time Lasix

1)
HC 4 Premiere Dancer
HC 7 Rubiano's Flag

2)
LS 3 March Bloom
HC 6 Butter Me Up

3)
LS 4 Robbery
L1 4 Robbery
L1 10 Buddy Baby

4)
HC 8 Show Bill
HC 7 Consider

5)
LS 3 Dazzmataz
HC 4 Sugar Ray Silver

6)
LS 3 Winter Lady
LS 8 Duncan Miss

7)
LS 2 Victorious Vicki
HC 6 Suminister

8)
HC 3 Brighten My Day

9)
HC 1 Dave's Pat
HC 11 Fast Tease

King Boreas · Posted: Thu May 13, 2004 5:16 am Post subject:

OK, I thought HTML was allowed ??

Analysis of each pick will follow.

A * (bullet) workout is one in which a particular horse had the fastest time at the distance for that day.

Lasix is a drug given to horses to assist breathing, especially after a case of nasal bleeding. First time lasix horses win a higher percentage of races.

Consecutive works - a string of workouts and/or races, with no more than an 8 day interval between.

King Boreas · Posted: Thu May 13, 2004 5:26 am Post subject:

Race 1

Premiere Dancer has four consecutive works, including a bullet 5 furlong on 6 May - fastest of 19 horses that day

Rubiano's Flag has three consecutive works.

Race 2

March Bloom is a very weak pick. It lead a race at Turf Paradise on 20 March ans has one workout at Canterbury.

Butter Me Up has four consecutive works.

Race 3

Robbery has six consecutive works, including a bullet work on 30 April after a race on 26 April at Prairie Meadows. Robbery was claimed in that race, and goes to post with 1st Lasix.

Race 4

Show Bill has never raced, but has three consecutive works.

Consider is another first-timer, with two consecutive works, and a great jockey.

Race 5

Dazmatazz is a very weak pick, with a third place finish on 30 March at Turf Paradise

Sugar Ray Silver has four consecutive fast works, with a 5 furlong bullet work on 7 May, the fastest of 11 horses that day.

Race 6

Winter Lady is the highest rated longshot pick of the day.

Duncan Miss could wake up with the change in tracks and jockeys.

Race 7

Victorious Vicki is only a couple points behind Winter Lady. She's finished 2nd, 1st and 8th this year.

Suminister has three consecutive workouts, including a bullet 3 furlong work on 11 May, the fastest of 24 horses on that day. (Matched by Brighten My Day)

Race 8

Brighten My Day has three consecutive workouts, including a bullet 3 furlong work on 11 May, the fastest of 24 horses on that day. (Matched by Suminister)

Race 9

Dave's Pat is a first-time starter with two consecutive fast works.

Kitch · Posted: Thu May 13, 2004 7:27 am Post subject:

I know its free adminssion this weekend...

also...

My system rocks... Its called...

Go with my Father-in-law's best friend.
My father in law is a retired district court judge. One of his friends owns a large Firm. This Friend (won't name here) also is a big time horse owner at the track.

Just before every race a kid would come up to him with a piece of paper and right after that he would tell us what to bet. I know he also told my Father in Law a limit to bet as well.....He wasn't worried about me and my $2. bets.

King Boreas · Posted: Fri May 14, 2004 8:43 am Post subject:

Anyone going?

I'll be in the "U-Betcha Bar", main level, outside.

Kitch · Posted: Fri May 14, 2004 9:10 am Post subject:

King Boreas · Posted: Sat May 15, 2004 12:06 am Post subject:

http://websports.8m.com/051404.html

results and prices paid

In race 1, Premiere Dancer was scratched.

1)Rubiano's Flag (win)11.20 (place)4.40 (show)3.60

2)Butter Me Up (show)3.60

5)Sugar Ray Silver (win)9.80 (place)4.60 (show)3.00
Dazzmataz (show)3.20

6)Winter Lady (place)22.00 (show)9.80

In race 7, Victorious Vicki was scratched.

9)Dave's Pat (win)5.00 (place)3.60 (show)3.40

Lyverbird · Posted: Sat May 15, 2004 7:23 am Post subject:

Wow, I never would have thought you guys for track boys.
I used to work at a breeding stable for a racing syndicate, until the track closed for while many years back. I still get a bunch of free tickets each year.
My plan is to put in one pockt how much a fun day is worth, so does hubby. Hubby reads the stats and odds, I go and watch the horses in the paddock to see what shape and attutide they have. $2 bets only to show or place, only occasionly to win. At the end of the day, hubbys pocket is empty and mine has a little over doubled, plus paid for lunch and snacks. This equals a free and fun day out, but I'll never get rich from it. Laughing

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rickrich · Geocacher Joined: 06 Jul 2003 Posts: 673